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  The Herman Trend Alert

January 2, 2008

Job Boards' Successes Herald the Future

The activity of job boards is a predictor of the future of the economy. The number of jobs posted is a forward leading indicator of near-term economic growth. "Our level of job postings is at an all-time high," said Ted Daywalt President and CEO of VetJobs.com, the leading job board for veterans and their families in the United States.

Job boards are involved with organizations just after the decision to add employees. They are the main medium by which employers now advertise for new and replacement workers.

Daywalt details that in 2002, VetJobs barely had 2,000 jobs posted per day. Now the average is 24,000 active jobs per day and he sees his numbers rising. He expects the number of daily active postings to grow to 30,000 later in 2008.

VetJobs' increase mirrors the marketplace as a whole; recently, the Conference Board reported that the number of jobs advertised online in 2007 grew by 9.7 percent over 2006.

Though there are no statistics to separate new from replacement postings, VetJobs' level of increase indicates expansion. Since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics states that voluntary employee turnover has remained constant over the last quarter, we can safely assume that most of the increases are attributable to new job creation.

The increase in job postings reflects the level of corporate confidence. That's why we at The Herman Group feel comfortable in forecasting a slowdown, rather than a recession in the U.S. economy for 2008.

For the last five years, the time between Christmas and New Years for job boards was "totally dead". This year, VetJobs signed on a number of major corporations and their mid-size clients called because they need to hire people "right away".

A few of the hottest job categories: information technology, engineering, water management, computer numerically controlled (CNC) machining, healthcare, and service industries.

"Many companies would like to expand, but are holding off because they can't find the skilled people they need", reports Daywalt. Employers must support local workforce development efforts, if they want to have the skilled workers that they will need to stay in business.


© Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc."


BACK BY POPULAR DEMAND: RETENTION SPECIALIST PROGRAM
A growing number of people have expressed an interest in attending our Employee Retention Specialist Certificate Program. We'd like to schedule on that's convenient for those who want to attend, but need your feedback to do so. Please place RETENTION SPECIALIST in the subject line and Joyce will personally call you back to schedule the workshop. Or you can call Joyce directly at 336-210-3548 (PDT this and next week).

BUSINESS IS PICKING UP
Most employers are unprepared. The recovery will bring a new set of challenges for employers that have been in prolonged contracted mode. They will need more skilled workers or will need now to begin to upskill their current staffs. But organizations can not engage in Strategic Workforce Planning, when they don't know how. That's where The Herman Group can help. We can help you with your "People Review"----large or small---so that you will know who you will need and when you will need them. . . and we can also guide you to the best sources for the people you will need. For more information, call Joyce at 336-210-3548 or e-mail joyce@hermangroup.com.

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