This Week's Herman Trend Alert The Consequences of Virtual Meetings

The Herman Trend Alert November 5, 2008 Tackling the Physician Shortage Around the world, physicians are in short supply. In the United States, this shortage is sadly getting worse. Some disturbing statistics include that nearly one-third of practicing physicians are age 55 years or older and likely to retire in the next decade. An estimate of the current nationwide shortage of primary care doctors is 60,000. In fact, some parts of the Midwest do not have a single physician. By 2020, the US Department. of Health and Human Services' Health Resources and Services Administration projects a shortfall of at least 55,000 physicians, mainly in non-primary care specialties, while the Health Policy Institute of the Medical College of Wisconsin forecasts 200,000 additional doctors needed by that time. As if this situation were not bad enough, the American Medical Group Association (AMGA) forecasts added pressure of even greater losses due to an increasing number of physicians practicing on a part time basis, particularly among women with children. Outside of the US, in Africa, the United Nations World Health Organization (WHO), projects the birth coverage shortfall alone will be 167,000 doctors by 2015. The only country that appears to be doing okay is Cuba, where we find more than double (5.91) the number of physicians per 1000 people as the US (2.56). By 2015, The American Association of Medical Colleges (AAMC) has suggested a 30 percent increase in medical school enrollments. This increase would result in 5,000 new M.D. students every year. The AAMC is also considering new options for US medical students to study abroad and return to the US to complete their residency and practice medicine. According to a new industry report from Jackson & Coker, hospitals and medical groups are taking steps to tackle this critical problem with encouraging outcomes. Some have responded by adopting more flexible staffing, allowing for job sharing and part time positions. Twenty percent of the responding administrators and recruiters use contracted physicians to handle shortfalls. Wise hospitals and health systems will follow the lead of Healthcare Network Associates in Springfield, Illinois, where, in part because they are recognized as an Employer of Choice®, physicians are calling them for employment. © Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." BACK BY POPULAR DEMAND: RETENTION SPECIALIST PROGRAM A growing number of people have expressed an interest in attending our Employee Retention Specialist Certificate Program. We'd like to schedule on that's convenient for those who want to attend, but need your feedback to do so. Please place RETENTION SPECIALIST in the subject line and Joyce will personally call you back to schedule the workshop. Or you can call Joyce directly at 336-210-3548 (PDT this and next week). BUSINESS IS PICKING UP Most employers are unprepared. The recovery will bring a new set of challenges for employers that have been in prolonged contracted mode. They will need more skilled workers or will need now to begin to upskill their current staffs. But organizations can not engage in Strategic Workforce Planning, when they don't know how. That's where The Herman Group can help. We can help you with your "People Review"----large or small---so that you will know who you will need and when you will need them. . . and we can also guide you to the best sources for the people you will need. For more information, call Joyce at 336-210-3548 or e-mail joyce@hermangroup.com. FIND OUT WHAT YOUR EMPLOYEES REALLY THINK AND FEEL Discover what’s really going on in the hearts and minds of your employees. Our InnerViews interviewing service uses SPHRs and PHRs, certified human resource professionals to probe for the information you really need to know. Exit and Stay Interviews, as well as Why-Didn't-You-Take-Our-Offer Interviews. Call Rosalie Catalano at 937-416-7066, or read more at: http://www.hermangroup.com/retentionconnection/exit_interviews.html. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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