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The Herman Trend Alert December 19, 2007 China's Future Labor Market Over the past decade, China's annual GDP increase has been nearly ten percent and for 2007, that growth is nearly 12 percent. We have watched this growth with interest and concern. China's striking rise to prominence is evident in many ways. Few expect that Chinese economic growth will slow substantially anytime soon. Many of the developed countries have felt significant losses as the Chinese economy has prospered. However thanks to the Adecco Institute White Paper, published this month, we have a better understanding of China's situation. China is not without its own list of major challenges: a significant and growing shortage of skilled workers, "massive economic transition, increasingly unequal income distribution, high unemployment, economic imbalance such as rising inflation, and a fast-aging workforce" (see TA from 12/3/03 entitled, "Global Demographics") are already beginning to have a detrimental effect on its national labor market. Moreover, as time passes, these challenges, if not addressed appropriately, will limit economic growth. Back in 2005, we began covering China's labor shortage (see TA from 11/30/05 entitled "Attrition is an International Problem "). "Of all China's worries, there is little doubt that the growing shortage of skilled workers---leading to severe recruitment and retention problems---is one of the most pressing." It is surely at the top of foreign and local business interests. Certainly, the continuity of economic growth in China, and the sourcing of products there by foreign and national firms, will depend on the ability of Chinese firms to recruit and retain skilled workers, as well as their making productivity improvements. (see TA from 6/20/07 entitled "Global War for Talent") "China is (currently) at full employment for skilled, technical, and managerial talent." In research conducted for the Adecco Institute, the Shanghai Academy of Social Science found that China's labor market faces 5 to 10 year supply constraints in five key areas of skilled labor: "management talent, English language skills, Research & Development personnel, senior and secondary technically skilled workers, and holders of professional certificates". China's continued growth will depend on employers' addressing these critical issues. In a subsequent Herman Trend Alert, we will address its recently instituted labor reforms. On 17 and 18 of January, Joyce will deliver her first workshop in Hong Kong. Titled "Advanced Talent Engagement", it will assist Chinese firms in addressing these critical issues. BONUS: Mention that you are a Herman Trend Alert subscriber and receive a 10% discount. Hurry, space is limited. Contact Jennifer at jennifer@uninetintelligence.com or 65 6825 9630. © Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." BACK BY POPULAR DEMAND: RETENTION SPECIALIST PROGRAM A growing number of people have expressed an interest in attending our Employee Retention Specialist Certificate Program. We'd like to schedule on that's convenient for those who want to attend, but need your feedback to do so. Please place RETENTION SPECIALIST in the subject line and Joyce will personally call you back to schedule the workshop. Or you can call Joyce directly at 336-210-3548 (PDT this and next week). BUSINESS IS PICKING UP Most employers are unprepared. The recovery will bring a new set of challenges for employers that have been in prolonged contracted mode. They will need more skilled workers or will need now to begin to upskill their current staffs. But organizations can not engage in Strategic Workforce Planning, when they don't know how. That's where The Herman Group can help. We can help you with your "People Review"----large or small---so that you will know who you will need and when you will need them. . . and we can also guide you to the best sources for the people you will need. For more information, call Joyce at 336-210-3548 or e-mail joyce@hermangroup.com. FIND OUT WHAT YOUR EMPLOYEES REALLY THINK AND FEEL Discover what’s really going on in the hearts and minds of your employees. Our InnerViews interviewing service uses SPHRs and PHRs, certified human resource professionals to probe for the information you really need to know. Exit and Stay Interviews, as well as Why-Didn't-You-Take-Our-Offer Interviews. Call Rosalie Catalano at 937-416-7066, or read more at: http://www.hermangroup.com/retentionconnection/exit_interviews.html. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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