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The Herman Trend Alert March 22, 2006 Shortage of Skilled Labor Spreading We have focused quite a bit of attention on the growing shortage of qualified workers in the United States. Based on our interpretation of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we anticipated a shortage of 10 Million skilled labor by 2010. We presented our case in our book, “Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People.” While there have been some challenges to our forecast, many others now use our projections. Whether the actual shortfall will be 8, 10, or 14 Million, it is clear that employers find it increasingly difficult to hire and retain the people they need. In 2004, in our “Red Alert Paper,” we reported that the employment market was shifting from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market. Now, employee turnover is increasing even faster, as talented employees seek better job opportunities. The phenomenon is not limited to the United States or North America. We see these conditions developing at an alarming pace in developed---and some developing---countries around the world. This global shortage of skilled workers---educated and trained to perform the work of today and tomorrow---will affect everyone. Recent reports tell us that leading Japanese companies have begun preparing to hire next year's graduates. Their intention to recruit large numbers of new graduates is a radical change from their restrained hiring in recent years. The employment market in that country is now characterized as a “seller’s market” by the Japanese media. Hiring plans announced by employers include Toshiba’s plans to hire 1,570 new graduates, marking the first time in 13 years the electronics manufacturer has taken on more than 1,000 new graduates at once. Honda expects to hire 1,120 new graduates, its first mass recruitment in 16 years. Financial institutions also intend to employ many recent graduates. Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. plans to hire 2,350, while Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. plans to hire about 1,100. The employment situation in once-stable Japan is complicated by the tendency of more than 30 percent of young workers hired after graduation quitting within three years. The trends we have highlighted are increasingly global in perspective. © Copyright 1998-2008 by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." DON'T GAMBLE WITH YOUR COMPANY'S FUTURE Many jobs have been open for months or even years, because some skilled workers have become impossible to find. Join us in Las Vegas and learn the low- and no-cost solutions to this workforce crisis. Help your company recruit and retain the talent it must have to survive. Recertification credit from HRCI. Next Employee Retention Specialist(TM) Program: September 9-10. Call Carol at 336-282-9370 or visit http://www.employeeretentionspecialist.com. LOOKING FOR A DYNAMIC KEYNOTE SPEAKER TO INSPIRE YOUR PEOPLE? Joyce Gioia (joy-yah) is an inspirational futurist who freely shares her knowledge and expertise about talent engagement and retention with business executives around the globe. Her understandings and insights will inform and fascinate you. For more information, call Carol McKinney at 336-282-9370 or visit the web site at http://www.hermangroup.com/joyce.html for more information on Joyce's calendar and her topics. WANT TO BE RECOGNIZED AS AN EMPLOYER OF CHOICE®? Our effective, onsite seminars, workshops, and consulting can help you get there. We can offer 1-, 2-, 3-hour, and full-day programs to help you communicate what it takes to become an Employer of Choice® and inspire your folks to get it done. We've helped others; let us help you. Call Joyce at 336-210-3548 to schedule a no-obligation conference call. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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