This Week's Herman Trend Alert Purpose Emerging as Important Driver of Engagement

The Herman Trend Alert April 19, 2006 Demographics Driving Politics People who are very religious tend to have larger families. In many cases, shunning birth control is even part of being a devout person. We see these results in predominantly Muslim and Catholic countries as well as in parts of the United States. Comparing birthrates of the states, it is easy to forecast the political climate of the next five to 15 years. The states we characterize as "red", those that voted for George W. Bush have a significantly higher birthrate than those we characterize as "blue", having voted for John Kerry. The implications of these facts are fascinating. First, these states will have increasing representation in the House of Representatives. Immigration and relocation aside, as the populations of these states grow, so will their proportion of the total population of the country. According to Philip Longman, a fellow at the New American Foundation, "47 percent of people who attend church weekly say their ideal family size is three or more children", whereas only "27 percent of those who seldom attend church want that many kids". We see the implications of this contrast best played out in Utah and Vermont. In Utah, the home of the Church of Latter Day Saints, over 60 percent of the population practices that religion. Mormons are traditionally highly patriarchal and believe that procreation is an expression of religious practice. In this state, every year 92 children are born for every 1000 women. Looking at the number of annual births in Vermont, we find only 49 newborns per 1000 women. Children in Utah and other states with high fertility rates will be born into families that are religiously and politically conservative. Since, for the most part, children adopt the political views of their parents, we can readily forecast an increase in the power that conservative factions in the US will wield. We see the opposite in effect in certain countries in Europe, notably the Germany, United Kingdom, and France where the birthrates have historically been 1.4, 1.7, and 1.8 respectively. Based on these data, it is understandable that more conservative factions have been less popular. © Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." WHO SENDS OUT YOUR NEWSLETTERS? We are convinced there is no better choice than ours! We have happily used DataBack Systems to deliver The Herman Trend Alert for over 10 years and. Visit their website (http://www.databack.com) or call Byron directly at 503.941.0427. You'll be glad you did. IS YOUR EMPLOYER AN EMPLOYER OF CHOICE®? Our effective, onsite seminars, workshops, and consulting can help you get there. We offer 1-, 2-, 3-hour, and full-day programs to help you communicate what it takes to become an Employer of Choice® and inspire your folks to get it done. In the future, being an Employer of Choice® will not be optional. Call Carol at 336-210-3547 to arrange a no-obligation conference call. Or order the electronic version of the Employer of Choice book on your desktop for only $17.80 @ http://hermangroup.com/store/books_all.html#2. STRUGGLING TO FIND THE PEOPLE YOU NEED? VETJOBS CAN HELP! Recently, hundreds of thousands of jobs remain unfilled due to a lack of capable people. If you are looking for qualified candidates, you need to hire a veteran using VFW-sponsored VetJobs, the largest military employment site on the Internet. Thousands of returning veterans are looking for good jobs now. Mention this ad in The Herman Trend Alert and receive a 10% discount on job postings. Call Ted Daywalt at 877-838-5627 or inquire at info@VetJobs.com. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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