This Week's Herman Trend Alert Corporate Blindness

The Herman Trend Alert June 11, 2008 Unemployment--the Numbers Behind the Numbers The latest jump in the United States unemployment statistics has finally prompted us to speak out about what is really happening in the US labor marketplace and what effects these changes will have on our trading partners around the globe. Last Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the unemployment rate is the highest since October 2004; this 10 percent boost was the biggest percentage point gain in 33 years. The Payroll Survey of employers is the basis for this increase. To its credit, the BLS does include in its notes: "in the establishment (payroll) survey, estimates for the most recent 2 months are based on substantially incomplete returns". This increase in unemployment continues to mask the real situation. Looking at the BLS' Household Survey, in the month of May, the national unemployment percentages among adult men and women were 4.9 and 4.8. At the same time, the rate for teenagers, ages 16 to 19 jumped from 15.4 in April to 18.7 in May, an increase of 21.4 percent. While part of this increase is due to high school and community college graduations, these new job seekers do not account for this huge increase. Rather, we believe that something else is happening. We believe that employers are holding on to their skilled, experienced workers and those with lower skill levels are considered more expendable and easier to hire back---as employees or contractors---when conditions improve. What these data reflect is that the US has a real problem with its under-resourced schools---schools that are either not engaging students enough to keep them there or preparing them for the job market. As a nation, we need to wake up to our workforce development challenges, including the lack of connection between employers and the community and technical colleges. For our friends abroad, these data also mask our critical skilled labor shortages that present real opportunities for them. Lacking the trained, skilled labor here will mean location of future facilities in places like Brasil and Southeast Asia, where there are pools of skilled workers, capable of handling work that US employees can not. © Copyright 1998-2008 by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." FRIENDS ENCOURAGE FRIENDS TO SIGN UP FOR HERMAN TREND ALERT You know how valuable The Herman Trend Alert is in your life. Why not suggest that your friends sign up at http://www.hermantrendalert.com? Join the thousands who subscribe in 82 countries around the globe. And please let us know how else we may serve you? Email: joyce@hermangroup.com. EMPLOYEE RETENTION BEGINS WITH THE RIGHT SELECTION. Hiring the wrong person can cost your organization a lot. Let PeopleClues  help you better understand your candidates and your current employees. In less than 30 minutes, you will know if they can do the job (abilities); their work behaviors, even their personality and attitudes (like integrity and ethics), and those can't be trained. PeopleClues® is very cost effective, too! For more information, contact e-mail assessments@hermangroup.com. We can help you with job descriptions, too! Validated for many countries & cultures. COME TO BEAUTIFUL NEW ORLEANS AND BECOME AN EMPLOYEE RETENTION SPECIALIST The employment market for skilled workers continues to be hot. Many positions are impossible to fill. As an Employee Retention Specialist, you will be more valuable to your employer. You'll learn what's behind this skilled labor crisis and . . .what to do about it. Next program: January 28-29, Hilton Garden Inn New Orleans Airport. Sign up by calling Carol at 336-282-9370 or find more information at http://www.employeeretentionspecialist.com/. To read this Herman Trend Alert on the web: http://www.hermangroup.com/alert/archive_9-24-2008.html. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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