The Herman Trend Alert
January 18, 2017
Unintended Demographic Consequences
In an attempt to limit population growth in China in 1980, the government instituted a strict one-child "policy" throughout the country. For years, Chinese couples were not allowed to have more than one child and doing so had dire consequences---legal, economic, and social. Couples making the difficult choice to have more than one child were penalized financially, shunned socially, and sometimes even jailed.
China's long-term demographic shift
It takes a birth rate of 2.1 for a population to sustain itself. And in China, due to the valuing of boys over girls, even the 2.1 rate would not be adequate. In 2016, the official government statistics bureau of China published data from its mini-census. That data showed China's total fertility rate (the number of children a woman expects to have in her lifetime) had fallen to 1.05---one of the lowest rates in the world.
Population down by 13.1 percent between 2012 and 2015
The number of children born in China in 2015 was 11.3 million, down from more than 13 million in 2012. This 13.1 percent decline represents a continuing trend of a decrease in the number of women of child-bearing age.
Relaxation of China's one-child policy won't help a lot
To increase the number of female babies in China, the country made the decision to relax its one-child policy. Unfortunately, that decision will not make a huge difference. Under the previous policy, in spite of the hardships afforded to couples making the difficult decision to have multiple children, almost half of all births were second or third children.
China's extensive family-planning infrastructure
China's existing family-planning infrastructure employs hundreds of thousands of people, continuing to pursue and fine those couples it believes have too many children. Interestingly, this trend of fewer children for parents "to spend money on, to be educated, and to become future consumers" has resulted in slowing economic growth for the country.
Declining birth rates have meant closing of schools, too
Especially in rural areas, this decline in the population, along with urban migration, have translated to the closing of more than 50 percent of the schools as well as a greater strain on urban schools. As the impact of this population decline continues, expect to see a further slowing of the economy.
What China can expect
Instituted country-wide 37 years ago, China's successful attempt to slow the growth of its population has clearly had a number of unintended consequences: a critical shortage of young women and a significant slowing of its economic growth. In spite of the importation of young women from India and other countries and government intervention, we do not see an immediate, significant change in either area.
Tourism can help, but. . .
Though tourism to China will continue to grow rapidly, that growth is hampered in large cities like Beijing by the lack of English-speaking skills. The hospitality industry in China would do well to launch a major foreign language initiative in this country, looking at the major languages spoken by its tourists.
Special thanks to McKinsey and Company for their recent report on "Employment and Growth". Read the full report at http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/can-long-term-global-growth-be-saved.
© Copyright 1998-
by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurist. 336-210-3548 or https://hermangroup.com. To sign up, visit https://HermanTrendAlert.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc."
HOW DOES SHE DO IT?
Our author Joyce gets quoted in TIME Magazine and other national media on a regular basis. You can, too! Sign up for ExpertClick.com. You will be found by the news media and in Google search: 1. Through your personal search-engine-optimized press room by 39 topics you choose; 2. By news releases pushed out 10 ways including Google News; 3. Be found in the 2020 printed Yearbook of Experts, Authorities & Spokespersons. Save 15% when you register by October 31st @ http://www.ExpertClick.com/Discount.
APF'S FUTURES FESTIVAL IN 3 DAYS: ONLINE OCTOBER 24TH: FULL SPECTRUM FUTURES
The Association of Professional Futurists proudly presents its annual online learning experiences on Full Spectrum Futures. Network with leading futurists from all over the world. And best of all, it's free to attend, though contributions are encouraged to help defray costs. For more information, visit here.
OUR VERSATILE TRANSLATOR ROCKS!
Excellent translation services from English, French, or German into Spanish. Especially well-versed in medicine/pharma and automobile industries. 5-year Bachelor Degree in Translation. Also editing and proofreading of all kinds of Spanish language documents. Flexible rates, depending on number of words, degree of difficulty/technicality, and turnaround. For an instant quote email Mariana Campora Lesti at email@example.com or contact her on SKYPE at marianacampora.
To read this Herman Trend Alert on the web: https://hermangroup.com/alert/archive_10-21-2020.html.
Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers.
New subscribers are always welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is read by over 30,000 people in 90 countries, including other websites and printed periodicals. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert.
Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Herman Trend Alert service.
Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert
View this week's Herman Trend Alert
Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts