This Week's Herman Trend Alert

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  The Herman Trend Alert

March 31, 2010

Global Hiring Revisited

Not even eight weeks after our Herman Trend Alert, forecasting growth in the global workforce, come two studies from the highly respected international staffing agency Manpower. The recently released Manpower studies on the United States and Global hiring expectations project more modest hiring in 2010.

While US employers report modest hiring plans for the second quarter, around the world, some regions have high expectations and others are still working on recovery to previous levels (prior to the economic slowdown).

According to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Surveys, the US will have a year-over-year increase of about five percent with a record-tying 73 percent of employers keeping staff levels stable. Twelve of the 13 industry sectors surveyed report positive net employment outlooks, meaning employers in most industry sectors plan to add staff during the second quarter.

The only sector expecting negative growth is Government, however with the passage of the recent healthcare legislation, we believe that may not be an accurate forecast. Moreover, among the 201 local metropolitan statistical areas surveyed, "94 percent indicate a positive or neutral net employment outlook, indicating cautious optimism is becoming more widespread geographically".

Internationally, the reports are mixed. Year over year, the study found a 50 percent improvement in the number of countries and territories surveyed expecting positive hiring activity in the second quarter (27 versus 18 of 36). "Job prospects in the Asia-Pacific region remain strong, with the exception of Japan, and hiring outlooks continue to improve modestly in most of the Americas region. In Europe, hiring patterns remain mixed with employers in eight countries indicating modest improvements compared to three months ago and the same period last year.

Employer hiring intentions are strongest in India, Brazil, and Taiwan, Peru, Costa Rica, Australia, and Singapore. The weakest hiring plans reported are in Italy, Spain, and Ireland.

As all of the countries of the world recover, we will see increasing hiring plans that promote economic growth and development of people. Employers who believe that the next year will be "business as usual" are in for some unpleasant surprises as they will be blind-sided by increasing global demands for skilled workers.

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