The Herman Trend Alert|
April 19, 2006
Demographics Driving Politics
People who are very religious tend to have larger families. In many cases, shunning birth control is even part of being a devout person. We see these results in predominantly Muslim and Catholic countries as well as in parts of the United States.
Comparing birthrates of the states, it is easy to forecast the political climate of the next five to 15 years. The states we characterize as "red", those that voted for George W. Bush have a significantly higher birthrate than those we characterize as "blue", having voted for John Kerry. The implications of these facts are fascinating.
First, these states will have increasing representation in the House of Representatives. Immigration and relocation aside, as the populations of these states grow, so will their proportion of the total population of the country.
According to Philip Longman, a fellow at the New American Foundation, "47 percent of people who attend church weekly say their ideal family size is three or more children", whereas only "27 percent of those who seldom attend church want that many kids".
We see the implications of this contrast best played out in Utah and Vermont. In Utah, the home of the Church of Latter Day Saints, over 60 percent of the population practices that religion. Mormons are traditionally highly patriarchal and believe that procreation is an expression of religious practice. In this state, every year 92 children are born for every 1000 women. Looking at the number of annual births in Vermont, we find only 49 newborns per 1000 women.
Children in Utah and other states with high fertility rates will be born into families that are religiously and politically conservative. Since, for the most part, children adopt the political views of their parents, we can readily forecast an increase in the power that conservative factions in the US will wield.
We see the opposite in effect in certain countries in Europe, notably the Germany, United Kingdom, and France where the birthrates have historically been 1.4, 1.7, and 1.8 respectively. Based on these data, it is understandable that more conservative factions have been less popular.
© Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurist. 336-210-3548 or https://hermangroup.com. To sign up, visit https://HermanTrendAlert.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc."
HOW DOES SHE DO IT?
APF'S FUTURES FESTIVAL IN 3 DAYS: ONLINE OCTOBER 24TH: FULL SPECTRUM FUTURES
OUR VERSATILE TRANSLATOR ROCKS!
To read this Herman Trend Alert on the web: https://hermangroup.com/alert/archive_10-21-2020.html.
Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers.
New subscribers are always welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is read by over 30,000 people in 90 countries, including other websites and printed periodicals. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert.
Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Herman Trend Alert service.
7112 Viridian Lane
Web site design by WebEditor Design Services, Inc.