This Week's Herman Trend Alert

Leadership in Normal 2.0

  The Herman Trend Alert

June 20, 2001

Forecast: Increasing Turnover

The economy has slowed. The slowdown, we believe, is temporary. However, many employers, nervous about their vulnerability, their responsibility to stockholders, and their bottom line, are strategically cutting payrolls. They now offer expensive severance packages and other inducements to encourage people to leave-exactly the opposite behavior of what these same employers did just a few months ago to recruit and hold workers.

Of course, a lot of employees are taking the packages and marching through the doors. Many of them are reluctant to leave. They had found jobs they enjoyed, and here comes management again throwing away valuable, experienced, dedicated workers. Human resource professionals are confused. Should they continue to operate their employee retention programs, or just open the floodgates? The choice may be in the hands of the workers.

The people who are discarded through no fault of their own experience powerful reinforcement of the "corporate loyalty is dead" feeling. They get a clear message that you can't trust management, that investing in a long term relationship with an employer just doesn't work anymore. In their panic to reduce costs, senior executives are systematically destroying the workforce stability they coveted so recently.

People who remain on the job are nervous. Will they be next? Should they look for other jobs? Can they trust what management tells them? Their attention is shifting to self-preservation, self-direction of their careers. Numerous employers are unwittingly forcing all their employees to re-think their loyalty and their motivation to work for their current employers.

When the economy heats up again, and it will soon, what will happen? We forecast an increase in employee turnover. Disenchanted workers will abandon those companies that dumped their co-workers, their friends. They'll seek opportunities at companies who held onto their people and used the slower period to invest in training, facilities maintenance and upgrading, and systematic improvements to the way things are done.

Employers who forced happy employees to leave will find it difficult to replace them. The word will get out. The stability equilibrium among businesses will change, bringing significant problems with production, sales, and employee relations.

© Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurist. 336-210-3548 or To sign up, visit The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc."

Our author Joyce gets quoted in TIME Magazine and other national media on a regular basis. You can, too! Sign up for You will be found by the news media and in Google search: 1. Through your personal search-engine-optimized press room by 39 topics you choose; 2. By news releases pushed out 10 ways including Google News; 3. Be found in the 2020 printed Yearbook of Experts, Authorities & Spokespersons. Save 15% when you register by October 31st @

The Association of Professional Futurists proudly presents its annual online learning experiences on Full Spectrum Futures. Network with leading futurists from all over the world. And best of all, it's free to attend, though contributions are encouraged to help defray costs. For more information, visit here.

Excellent translation services from English, French, or German into Spanish. Especially well-versed in medicine/pharma and automobile industries. 5-year Bachelor Degree in Translation. Also editing and proofreading of all kinds of Spanish language documents. Flexible rates, depending on number of words, degree of difficulty/technicality, and turnaround. For an instant quote email Mariana Campora Lesti at or contact her on SKYPE at marianacampora.

To read this Herman Trend Alert on the web:

Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers.

New subscribers are always welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is read by over 30,000 people in 90 countries, including other websites and printed periodicals. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert.

Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Herman Trend Alert service.

Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert
View this week's Herman Trend Alert
Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts


[ Home About Products Resources Media ]


7112 Viridian Lane
Austin, TX 78739
Voice: 336-210-3548
Toll Free in US & Canada: 800-227-3566

  © The Herman Group. All rights reserved.

Web site design by WebEditor Design Services, Inc.