This Week's Herman Trend Alert

in Normal 2.0


  The Herman Trend Alert

July 14, 2004

Is the Draft Coming Back?

The alleged shortages of military personnel in Iraq and other trouble spots has stimulated increasing debate. The US Secretary of Defense instituted measures to extend the length of time troops are serving in the Middle East and has extended active duty periods for National Guard and Reserve members called for wartime service.

Members of the reserve component of America's armed forces have been increasingly activated as a vital part of the military. Reliance on this resource is now in jeopardy. People who did not expect long-term overseas active duty to be part of their public service role have seen their personal and business lives disrupted. While senior Pentagon officials insist that retention of these volunteers---reserve and active duty (career)---is not a problem, troops home on leave have shared with media representatives that large proportions of their units do not plan to reenlist.

Concern is spreading that our military organization will not be able to retain sufficient numbers of highly trained personnel to meet current and future needs. This problem is magnified by the growth of jobs in the civilian environment, stimulating private sector recruiters to target skilled members of the military to fill open jobs. This competition between civilian employers and the armed services will place the military at a serious disadvantage, particularly if the civilian employers offer intense and comprehensive training along with their other benefits.

If this trend emerges, as many expect, the United States government will have no choice. The Selective Service System will be called to re-initiate the draft for the first time since the Viet Nam War. To respond, the agency will have to grow dramatically in a relatively short period, particularly in consideration of the training time required for today's professional military.

Complicating America's readiness is the fact that the Selective Service System has no appointed director. Senate confirmation of the president's nominee for the directorship has been held up for months in reaction to a totally unrelated political issue. This delay, complicating national readiness and management effectiveness, is an embarrassing example of America's leaders ignoring implications of the coming labor shortage.

© Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurist. 336-210-3548 or To sign up, visit The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc."

Excellent translation services from English, French, or German into Spanish. Especially well-versed in medicine/pharma and automobile industries. 5-year Bachelor Degree in Translation. Also editing and proofreading of all kinds of Spanish language documents. Flexible rates, depending on number of words, degree of difficulty/technicality, and turnaround. For an instant quote email Mariana Campora Lesti at or contact her on SKYPE at marianacampora.

Each week, Joyce and Ira will address some aspect of the future on Ahead of the Curve in Normal 2.0. It's fun and informative and you can join here. Subscribe and you will be notified when we are live.

Our author Joyce gets quoted in TIME Magazine, FORBES, and other national media on a regular basis. You can, too! Sign up for You will be found by the news media and in Google search: 1. Through your personal search-engine-optimized press room by 39 topics you choose; 2. By news releases pushed out 10 ways including Google News; 3. Be found in the 2020 printed Yearbook of Experts, Authorities & Spokespersons. Save 15% when you register by November 10th @

To read this Herman Trend Alert on the web:

Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers.

New subscribers are always welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is read by over 30,000 people in 90 countries, including other websites and printed periodicals. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert.

Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Herman Trend Alert service.

Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert
View this week's Herman Trend Alert
Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts


[ Home About Products Resources Media ]


7112 Viridian Lane
Austin, TX 78739
Voice: 336-210-3548
Toll Free in US & Canada: 800-227-3566

  © The Herman Group. All rights reserved.

Web site design by WebEditor Design Services, Inc.