This Week's Herman Trend Alert

Leadership in Normal 2.0

  The Herman Trend Alert

August 25, 2004

Domestic Job Growth

Note: The vast majority of our readers are located in the United States, where this issue is quite controversial. The Herman Trend Alert is read in at least 70 countries, many of which face the same concern about what jobs are secure and what jobs may move.

With the political campaigns heating up, expect to hear more noise about jobs going to other countries. Even with all the movement, only a small percentage of jobs have gone overseas. Here are some occupations that will remain at home:

Transportation. Truck drivers, pilots, truck and aircraft mechanics, truck and airline depot managers, bus and taxi drivers must all work in their host country. Those jobs can not be performed by someone in another place. The same constraint applies to the education field: Teachers, professors, administrators, school maintenance workers, and child-care providers. Some distance learning jobs may be accomplished in other countries, but requirements for coordination make that possibility less likely.

Service industry positions. The necessity for personal connection and involvement provide job security for hair stylists, barbers, morticians, graveyard maintenance workers, security guards, chefs, attorneys, interior designers, personal financial planners, local bankers, sales professionals, project managers, farmers, news reporters, and wholesale and retail employees of all sorts.

Even with the advent of distance medicine, healthcare positions are secure. Doctors, nurses, physical therapists, psychologists, nurse aides, hospital plant maintenance technicians, nursing home workers, and administrators will all remain local. There has been some movement toward reading of x-rays in other countries, but in the long run, almost all of that work will remain within the hospital for speed, quality, and control.

Most federal, state, and local government jobs are secure. Work done by police officers, firefighters, crime scene investigators, road maintenance workers, utility employees, sewage treatment plant and water treatment plant employees, and most of the citizen-service administrative staff will not be sent off-shore.

Any job that requires a knowledge and understanding of the American lifestyle and culture will also be hard to send overseas. Such jobs include marketing, advertising, media relations, actors, writers, producers, and a surprising proportion of customer service positions.

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