This Week's Herman Trend Alert

Leadership in Normal 2.0
 

  The Herman Trend Alert

September 22, 2010

Pilot Shortage Ahead

Just as the United States' airlines return to profitability, they have a new crisis to handle: finding enough pilots. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization, between 2010 and 2030, growing airlines around the world will need an average of 49,900 pilots/year. The problem is that the current training capacity is only 47,025.

That shortfall has created a bidding war, with some airlines offering tax-free salaries and four-bedroom villas and other carriers offering free training. Some airlines have even had to cancel flights. After losing 27 pilots to higher paying jobs abroad, Philippine Airlines canceled flights in July and August.

This pilot shortage will be a critical challenge to the industry’s growth. Even if airlines are able to find pilots, they will have to pay top dollar for them because they are in such demand.

In the next 12 years, the major US airlines alone are expected to hire more than 40,000 pilots. However, the US will face competition from faster-growing countries, like China and India.

In fact, China is the world’s fastest-growing major aviation market and is apt to account for a third of the orders from Asia, according to Airbus---the world’s biggest aircraft manufacturer. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates, China's economy will grow by 10.5 percent this year; by comparison, the average world growth is expected to be only 4.6 percent and the US will be even lower.

Rivaling China, India is coming up fast with growth this year estimated to be 9.4 percent. Two other countries to watch that are growing rapidly are Brazil and Turkey, with growth rates of 9 percent (Wall Street Journal Q1) and 5.2 percent (IMF forecast for 2010) respectively. Their airlines, too, will increasingly need pilots.

With the learning curve for pilot training, this shortage is going to last for a while and foreign carriers will struggle most. According to Airbus between 2009 and 2028, world passenger traffic will increase an average of 4.7 percent a year.

With business travel shrinking, due to virtual meetings, our forecast is (absent another financial or healthcare sector catastrophe), non-meeting business travel, including leisure and personal business travel, will pick up the slack.


© Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurist. 336-210-3548 or https://hermangroup.com. To sign up, visit https://HermanTrendAlert.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc."

HOW DOES SHE DO IT?
Our author Joyce gets quoted in TIME Magazine and other national media on a regular basis. You can, too! Sign up for ExpertClick.com. You will be found by the news media and in Google search: 1. Through your personal search-engine-optimized press room by 39 topics you choose; 2. By news releases pushed out 10 ways including Google News; 3. Be found in the 2020 printed Yearbook of Experts, Authorities & Spokespersons. Save 15% when you register by October 31st @ http://www.ExpertClick.com/Discount.

APF'S FUTURES FESTIVAL IN 3 DAYS: ONLINE OCTOBER 24TH: FULL SPECTRUM FUTURES
The Association of Professional Futurists proudly presents its annual online learning experiences on Full Spectrum Futures. Network with leading futurists from all over the world. And best of all, it's free to attend, though contributions are encouraged to help defray costs. For more information, visit here.

OUR VERSATILE TRANSLATOR ROCKS!
Excellent translation services from English, French, or German into Spanish. Especially well-versed in medicine/pharma and automobile industries. 5-year Bachelor Degree in Translation. Also editing and proofreading of all kinds of Spanish language documents. Flexible rates, depending on number of words, degree of difficulty/technicality, and turnaround. For an instant quote email Mariana Campora Lesti at marianalesti515@gmail.com or contact her on SKYPE at marianacampora.

To read this Herman Trend Alert on the web: https://hermangroup.com/alert/archive_10-21-2020.html.


Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers.

New subscribers are always welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is read by over 30,000 people in 90 countries, including other websites and printed periodicals. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert.

Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Herman Trend Alert service.


Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert
View this week's Herman Trend Alert
Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         


[ Home · About · Products · Resources · Media ]

 

7112 Viridian Lane
Austin, TX 78739
Voice: 336-210-3548
Toll Free in US & Canada: 800-227-3566
E-mail: info@hermangroup.com


  © The Herman Group. All rights reserved.

Web site design by WebEditor Design Services, Inc.