This Week's Herman Trend Alert

Leadership in Normal 2.0
 

  Press Release
For Immediate Release
4/5/04
Contact: Roger Herman

Supply Channel About to Explode

GREENSBORO, NC. Economists and commentators have talked about supply and demand for years, observes Roger Herman, Strategic Business Futurist and CEO of The Herman Group. "We're on the threshold of a new driving force," warns this forecaster.

"We're familiar with what happens in a marketplace when we have pent-up demand," Herman explains. "That strong demand drives production and distribution to meet the needs generated by the customers. In any market, the suppliers work diligently and competitively to be first and/or strongest to fulfill the demand."

Now Herman, a well-known forecaster in the workforce and workplace arena, advises his clients of a bubbling turbulence in the employment market. Instead of the pent-up demand for talent that we saw in the late 1990s, Herman sees a different force at work. "We're observing a powerful pent-up supply of talent that will drive the employment market from a different direction," he says. An increasing restlessness among workers is building receptivity to job offers and employee-initiated searches-some paid for by the worker-to find suitable new positions.

"Just as suppliers are often caught by surprise by a sudden explosion of a pent-up demand, the same phenomenon will be seen with the pent-up supply of labor. Employers simply are not ready for the rate and volume of employee turnover they will experience this year," Herman warns. Productivity and profitability will drop as knowledgeable employees leave for greener pastures and recruiters have difficulty attracting the qualified people they need, advises Herman, author of Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People.

Herman points to economic and workforce conditions prevalent when he published the first edition of his book, Keeping Good People in 1990. "Commentators mocked the possibility of a mid-1990s surge in employee turnover when we forecasted that shift. By mid-1994, we were in the beginning stages of unprecedented employee job movement. We're poised on the threshold of the same movement again. More employers are talking about retention being their most critical issue than did in the mid-nineties, but few are doing much to prevent the loss of their most valued people.


Photographs of Roger Herman are available for download at www.herman.net/pictures.html. He is available for interviews on this topic and related issues.

The Herman Group is a firm of consulting futurists concentrating on workforce and workplace trends and their implications. Emphasis is placed on employee selection and retention as critical strategies. Included in the firm are researchers, professional speakers, authors, and consultants. The Herman Group is based in Greensboro, NC, with affiliates in Sao Paulo, Melbourne, Hong Kong, and Port Louis, Mauritius. Contact Joyce Gioia-Herman at 336-210-3548 or e-mail: joyce@hermangroup.com.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            


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