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The Herman Trend Alert October 2, 2002 Impending Labor Crisis During the go-go years of the late 1990s, there were many more jobs than people to fill them. Employers were forced into aggressive recruiting in a highly competitive labor market. Workers had many alternatives; they could choose their employers. It was clearly a seller's market for labor. When the economy slowed, employers cut costs by reducing payroll. Thousands of workers lost their jobs as companies downsized to respond to the drop in demand for their products and services. Workers who were accustomed to the freedom to change jobs for better opportunities found themselves trapped. As a result, they are cocooning, waiting for the economy to grow and new jobs to open. "Warm chair attrition" is high. Many chairs are now warmed by people who have already moved psychologically. They just show up for work each day out of habit. Employers have become complacent. With employee turnover so low because of the slow economy, many employers have reduced their efforts to make employees feel valued and appreciated. All this serenity is about to change. As the economy improves, and the signs are there, more jobs will be created. Jobs that were closed during layoffs and downsizings will open again. Some employers have already started recruiting. As more positions become available, workers will start moving to new employers, leaving gaps that may be difficult to fill. In a relatively short time, many employers will experience serious and dangerous labor shortages. U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projections report that by 2010 (just over seven years from now) we will have 167,754,000 skilled jobs to fill in the United States alone. Other studies from this well-respected government agency forecast that we will only have 157,721,000 people in the workforce in 2010 to fill those jobs. As we interpret these numbers, we're facing a shortage of 10,033,000 workers in about 2700 days. Assuming that five percent of the workforce (7,886,050) holds two jobs, we still have approximately 2,146,950 jobs unfilled. Click here to see the chart. The shortage of qualified workers is already being felt by employers. It will be more intense by early 2003. © Copyright 1998-2008 by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." DON'T GAMBLE WITH YOUR COMPANY'S FUTURE Many jobs have been open for months or even years, because some skilled workers have become impossible to find. Join us in Las Vegas and learn the low- and no-cost solutions to this workforce crisis. Help your company recruit and retain the talent it must have to survive. Recertification credit from HRCI. Next Employee Retention Specialist(TM) Program: September 9-10. Call Carol at 336-282-9370 or visit http://www.employeeretentionspecialist.com. LOOKING FOR A DYNAMIC KEYNOTE SPEAKER TO INSPIRE YOUR PEOPLE? Joyce Gioia (joy-yah) is an inspirational futurist who freely shares her knowledge and expertise about talent engagement and retention with business executives around the globe. Her understandings and insights will inform and fascinate you. For more information, call Carol McKinney at 336-282-9370 or visit the web site at http://www.hermangroup.com/joyce.html for more information on Joyce's calendar and her topics. WANT TO BE RECOGNIZED AS AN EMPLOYER OF CHOICE®? Our effective, onsite seminars, workshops, and consulting can help you get there. We can offer 1-, 2-, 3-hour, and full-day programs to help you communicate what it takes to become an Employer of Choice® and inspire your folks to get it done. We've helped others; let us help you. Call Joyce at 336-210-3548 to schedule a no-obligation conference call. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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