This Week's Herman Trend Alert The Consequences of Virtual Meetings

The Herman Trend Alert October 2, 2002 Impending Labor Crisis During the go-go years of the late 1990s, there were many more jobs than people to fill them. Employers were forced into aggressive recruiting in a highly competitive labor market. Workers had many alternatives; they could choose their employers. It was clearly a seller's market for labor. When the economy slowed, employers cut costs by reducing payroll. Thousands of workers lost their jobs as companies downsized to respond to the drop in demand for their products and services. Workers who were accustomed to the freedom to change jobs for better opportunities found themselves trapped. As a result, they are cocooning, waiting for the economy to grow and new jobs to open. "Warm chair attrition" is high. Many chairs are now warmed by people who have already moved psychologically. They just show up for work each day out of habit. Employers have become complacent. With employee turnover so low because of the slow economy, many employers have reduced their efforts to make employees feel valued and appreciated. All this serenity is about to change. As the economy improves, and the signs are there, more jobs will be created. Jobs that were closed during layoffs and downsizings will open again. Some employers have already started recruiting. As more positions become available, workers will start moving to new employers, leaving gaps that may be difficult to fill. In a relatively short time, many employers will experience serious and dangerous labor shortages. U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projections report that by 2010 (just over seven years from now) we will have 167,754,000 skilled jobs to fill in the United States alone. Other studies from this well-respected government agency forecast that we will only have 157,721,000 people in the workforce in 2010 to fill those jobs. As we interpret these numbers, we're facing a shortage of 10,033,000 workers in about 2700 days. Assuming that five percent of the workforce (7,886,050) holds two jobs, we still have approximately 2,146,950 jobs unfilled. Click here to see the chart. The shortage of qualified workers is already being felt by employers. It will be more intense by early 2003. © Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." BACK BY POPULAR DEMAND: RETENTION SPECIALIST PROGRAM A growing number of people have expressed an interest in attending our Employee Retention Specialist Certificate Program. We'd like to schedule on that's convenient for those who want to attend, but need your feedback to do so. Please place RETENTION SPECIALIST in the subject line and Joyce will personally call you back to schedule the workshop. Or you can call Joyce directly at 336-210-3548 (PDT this and next week). BUSINESS IS PICKING UP Most employers are unprepared. The recovery will bring a new set of challenges for employers that have been in prolonged contracted mode. They will need more skilled workers or will need now to begin to upskill their current staffs. But organizations can not engage in Strategic Workforce Planning, when they don't know how. That's where The Herman Group can help. We can help you with your "People Review"----large or small---so that you will know who you will need and when you will need them. . . and we can also guide you to the best sources for the people you will need. For more information, call Joyce at 336-210-3548 or e-mail joyce@hermangroup.com. FIND OUT WHAT YOUR EMPLOYEES REALLY THINK AND FEEL Discover what’s really going on in the hearts and minds of your employees. Our InnerViews interviewing service uses SPHRs and PHRs, certified human resource professionals to probe for the information you really need to know. Exit and Stay Interviews, as well as Why-Didn't-You-Take-Our-Offer Interviews. Call Rosalie Catalano at 937-416-7066, or read more at: http://www.hermangroup.com/retentionconnection/exit_interviews.html. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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