This Week's Herman Trend Alert Telecommuting to a Better Bottom Line

The Herman Trend Alert October 27, 2004 Demographic Train Wreck? Commentators, consultants, politicians, and others are talking about a "demographic train wreck." They warn that employers will run out of workers to serve customers and make money for their companies. For example, The Consours Group, a management consulting firm, says that "the U.S. workforce grew by 30 percent in the 1970s, slowed to 12 percent growth in the 1990s and this decade, and will practically screech to a halt with 2 or 3 percent growth in the next two decades. The reason is obvious, Boomers retiring and not enough GEN X, Y, or Zs to replace them." While their numbers are reasonable, we differ in interpretation. From our perspective as workforce forecasters, there are several fallacies with the argument that we will exhaust our supply of workers to fill jobs. First of all, we do not expect all of the 76.4 Million Baby Boomers in the United States---or their counterparts around the world---to retire in their fifties or sixties. People will continue to work---in full-time, part-time, contract, job-sharing, and other arrangements well into their seventies, eighties, and even nineties. A shift in personal values and well-being is influencing people to keep working. They want to be active, engaged, and productive. On the other side of the coin, employers will need those older workers. They will value their expertise, experience, maturity, wisdom, and stability. Analysts are encouraging companies to use incentives to entice Boomers to remain after the traditional retirement age. These perks include reduced work schedule, added health benefits, and flexible, extended time off. Boomers will not be cheap to retain, but their expertise may be irreplaceable. Young people entering the workforce have technical knowledge and formal education, but lack the seasoning that makes older workers an especially valuable resource. Expect to see younger workers, bred with technology, to mentor older workers. Reverse apprenticeship will make some people uncomfortable, particularly the workers in the middle who may be neither fully technologically competent nor heavily experienced. Our demographic challenge will be blending an age-diverse workforce as we struggle to fill positions with workers prepared to fulfill their missions. © Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." NEED HELP THINKING ABOUT YOUR FUTURE? Our futurists offer thought-provoking and penetrating insights, along with creative ideas to implement right away. Whether you're looking for a speaker or a consultant or a facilitator for your strategic planning retreat, The Herman Group can help you find a person for your needs, no matter what your topic. Call Joyce at 336-210-3548 to discuss your event. REDUCE COSTS BY LOWERING EMPLOYEE TURNOVER If you knew just how much money turnover is costing your company, you would have handled it ages ago! Turnover costs A LOT and it comes right off the bottom line. Let The Herman Group and its team of very experienced consultants help you address your turnover issues right away. We have an impressive track record and stand ready to help you. Call Carol at 800-227-3566; international, call 336-210-3547 for a no-obligation conference call. GOOD SELECTION = BETTER RETENTION If you are not using pre-employment assessments, you are flying without radar---not very smart in today's highly competitive environment. Let us help you better understand your candidates and your employees. In less than 30 minutes, you will know if they can do the job (abilities); their work behaviors, even their personality and attitudes (like integrity & ethics), and those can't be trained. It's very cost effective, too! For more information, contact Joyce at 336-210-3548 or e-mail assessments@hermangroup.com. Validated for many countries and cultures. We offer in-depth help with job descriptions, too! http://www.hermangroup.com/assessments.html. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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