This Week's Herman Trend Alert Telecommuting to a Better Bottom Line

The Herman Trend Alert March 1, 2006 Where are the People? As we warn of the growing shortage of skilled workers---the most severe in history, we are often asked if the problem is caused by the retirement of the 76.4 Million people in the Baby Boom generation. Our answer has to be a guarded "no." Certainly, some Boomers will retire over the next few years; however, many more will not. The problem is more complicated. Following the Baby Boom generation, births during 1946 to 1964, 68.5 Million children were born into Generation X (1965 to 1985). That sharp decline in the birthrate is a major contributor to our shortage. We saw 2.6 percent annual increases in the birth rate in the 1970s, but by the 1990s the birth rate in the United States had dropped to a 1.1 percent annual increase. This perspective was highlighted in a recent report issued by the Rand Corporation, a non-profit think tank conducting research studies for over 50 years. Rand's study concluded that "The annual growth rate of the nation's workforce is expected to slow to a nearly static 0.4 percent by 2010." Immigration has added more people to the workforce, supporting expansion, but the supply growth rate is still substantially lower than the demand energized by the expanding economy. As we throw around these statistics, it is important to match them against the calendar. Employers are wrestling with a skilled labor shortage---now. Today's birthrate will not affect their labor supply for two decades. The problems employers face today are influenced by the birthrate in the late 1980s. Babies born today will have an impact on the flow of entry level workers in 2024 and beyond. Babies born today do affect the flow of workers. More mothers are opting to stay at home with their children, instead of returning to the workforce. This shift has nothing to do with demographics; this is a values-based decision. Young people coming out of America's colleges and universities were expected be eager participants in the labor force. Instead, many of them choose to work for themselves, to put money into their own pockets. The workforce is changing. © Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." NEED HELP THINKING ABOUT YOUR FUTURE? Our futurists offer thought-provoking and penetrating insights, along with creative ideas to implement right away. Whether you're looking for a speaker or a consultant or a facilitator for your strategic planning retreat, The Herman Group can help you find a person for your needs, no matter what your topic. Call Joyce at 336-210-3548 to discuss your event. REDUCE COSTS BY LOWERING EMPLOYEE TURNOVER If you knew just how much money turnover is costing your company, you would have handled it ages ago! Turnover costs A LOT and it comes right off the bottom line. Let The Herman Group and its team of very experienced consultants help you address your turnover issues right away. We have an impressive track record and stand ready to help you. Call Carol at 800-227-3566; international, call 336-210-3547 for a no-obligation conference call. GOOD SELECTION = BETTER RETENTION If you are not using pre-employment assessments, you are flying without radar---not very smart in today's highly competitive environment. Let us help you better understand your candidates and your employees. In less than 30 minutes, you will know if they can do the job (abilities); their work behaviors, even their personality and attitudes (like integrity & ethics), and those can't be trained. It's very cost effective, too! For more information, contact Joyce at 336-210-3548 or e-mail assessments@hermangroup.com. Validated for many countries and cultures. We offer in-depth help with job descriptions, too! http://www.hermangroup.com/assessments.html. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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