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The Herman Trend Alert March 1, 2006 Where are the People? As we warn of the growing shortage of skilled workers---the most severe in history, we are often asked if the problem is caused by the retirement of the 76.4 Million people in the Baby Boom generation. Our answer has to be a guarded "no." Certainly, some Boomers will retire over the next few years; however, many more will not. The problem is more complicated. Following the Baby Boom generation, births during 1946 to 1964, 68.5 Million children were born into Generation X (1965 to 1985). That sharp decline in the birthrate is a major contributor to our shortage. We saw 2.6 percent annual increases in the birth rate in the 1970s, but by the 1990s the birth rate in the United States had dropped to a 1.1 percent annual increase. This perspective was highlighted in a recent report issued by the Rand Corporation, a non-profit think tank conducting research studies for over 50 years. Rand's study concluded that "The annual growth rate of the nation's workforce is expected to slow to a nearly static 0.4 percent by 2010." Immigration has added more people to the workforce, supporting expansion, but the supply growth rate is still substantially lower than the demand energized by the expanding economy. As we throw around these statistics, it is important to match them against the calendar. Employers are wrestling with a skilled labor shortage---now. Today's birthrate will not affect their labor supply for two decades. The problems employers face today are influenced by the birthrate in the late 1980s. Babies born today will have an impact on the flow of entry level workers in 2024 and beyond. Babies born today do affect the flow of workers. More mothers are opting to stay at home with their children, instead of returning to the workforce. This shift has nothing to do with demographics; this is a values-based decision. Young people coming out of America's colleges and universities were expected be eager participants in the labor force. Instead, many of them choose to work for themselves, to put money into their own pockets. The workforce is changing. © Copyright 1998-2008 by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." DON'T GAMBLE WITH YOUR COMPANY'S FUTURE Many jobs have been open for months or even years, because some skilled workers have become impossible to find. Join us in Las Vegas and learn the low- and no-cost solutions to this workforce crisis. Help your company recruit and retain the talent it must have to survive. Recertification credit from HRCI. Next Employee Retention Specialist(TM) Program: September 9-10. Call Carol at 336-282-9370 or visit http://www.employeeretentionspecialist.com. LOOKING FOR A DYNAMIC KEYNOTE SPEAKER TO INSPIRE YOUR PEOPLE? Joyce Gioia (joy-yah) is an inspirational futurist who freely shares her knowledge and expertise about talent engagement and retention with business executives around the globe. Her understandings and insights will inform and fascinate you. For more information, call Carol McKinney at 336-282-9370 or visit the web site at http://www.hermangroup.com/joyce.html for more information on Joyce's calendar and her topics. WANT TO BE RECOGNIZED AS AN EMPLOYER OF CHOICE®? Our effective, onsite seminars, workshops, and consulting can help you get there. We can offer 1-, 2-, 3-hour, and full-day programs to help you communicate what it takes to become an Employer of Choice® and inspire your folks to get it done. We've helped others; let us help you. Call Joyce at 336-210-3548 to schedule a no-obligation conference call. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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