This Week's Herman Trend Alert

Leadership in Normal 2.0

  The Herman Trend Alert

February 3, 2016

Online Sales Climbing

Thirty years ago, a brilliant futurist named Donald Libey was sounding the alarm for catalog companies and brick and mortar stores to take note of the growing importance of online sales. At that time, Libey looked at the growth curve and the way the majors were ignoring this trend. There was no Amazon, nor had Google been founded. In fact, they would not appear for almost ten years.

Online retail sales growth around the world
Online retail sales in the United States, alone, is expected to reach USD $327 billion, after topping USD$200 Billion last year. In Europe, online retail is expected to amount to 171 billion euros (USD$230 billion) up from 96.7 billion euros (USD$130 billion) in 2011, according to Forrester's estimates. In Mexico and Argentina, online retail is also increasing quickly and is expected to more than double between 2014 and 2019, according to the World Bank. And in China, the online retail market reached 945.1 billion yuan (USD$143.5 billion) with a growth rate of 45 percent, according to Analysys. Research firm Forrester says the overall online retail market will increase from 7 percent to 9 percent by 2016.

Brazil is no exception
Also according to The World Bank, ecommerce sales in Brazil will increase from $17.8 billion in 2014 to $40.8 billion in 2019. Brazil offers one of the most appealing ecommerce markets, since about 62 percent of is population is under the age of 30.

What's driving the growth?
Consumers are becoming more comfortable purchasing a wider range of products online. Plus, due to improvements in mobile and tablet shopping technology, shoppers are now finding it easier than ever before to shop online. Moreover, innovative shopping models and loyalty programs, like Gilt and Woot, as well as subscription loyalty programs like Amazon Prime are all drawing sales away from brick-and-mortar stores.

Our forecast
Expect to see more manufactured events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, now worldwide, which will attract record numbers of consumers every year. As online navigation systems continue to improve, younger, more tech-savvy populations come of age, and more retailers choose to create attractive loyalty programs, online retail sales will continue to surge.

Special thanks to for highlighting the recent Forrester study and raising our consciousness about the trend.

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