The Herman Trend Alert
March 4, 2020
A Vote for Normalcy in the United States
Most of these Herman Trend Alerts quote statistics and percentages and look at breakthroughs in technology or medicine or some other scientific development--- trends or advancements that have global appeal and application. Plus, in the more than 20-year history of these Alerts, we have never overtly covered politics. But, yesterday (Tuesday) in the US, a remarkable political event took place and I wanted to talk about what led us to that point and what it means for the future of not only the US, but the other countries of the world as well.
Young People and Other Progressives Mobilized
Students and other young people were courted and won over by our candidate Bernie Sanders. He promises free college for all, student loan forgiveness, medical insurance coverage for all, and other very attractive, though very expensive social programs. Sanders, an avowed Democratic Socialist, is promoting societal agendas costing trillions of USD. Many have wondered if they could ever pass these expenditures through a house or senate vote, even if those bodies were led by Democrats.
A Last-Minute Shift fueled by this Fear
One major concern was (and is) a significant concern that Sanders at the top of the ticket would mean that the down-ticket races of senate and house seats would in jeopardy. Many current office holders up for re-election have expressed this fear. Poll after poll in the US has shown that that the number one issue for choosing a candidate for the Democratic electorate has been the ability to prevent President Trump from having an even more disastrous second term. As Bernie Sanders popularity emerged and the electorate realized he had the best chance of becoming the nominee, Joe Biden appeared to be the only viable moderate alternative to beat Trump. Beginning with Biden's huge win in the South Carolina primary election, moderate candidates, including Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar, expressed their support for him. This momentum carried him to his victory yesterday.
Obama's Democratic Party
As Trump has dismantled the Obama legacy piece by piece, many Democrats have been saddened to watch this disintegration. Democrats have longed to have Obama back---or the next best, his former vice president. During impeachment proceedings, some of Trump's corrupt activities were exposed. However, supported by the Senate Republican Party fearful of the President's wrath, Trump was acquitted. A couple of patriots, notably Senators Mitt Romney and Doug Collins (a Democrat elected in a Republican district) were the only senators willing to stand up for the truth. Romney incurred Trump's anger and his promise to work to defeat him in his next election.
An Exhausted Electorate
The Democrats in the US have been dismayed to watch Trump's constant lying and bumbling through his presidency. In addition, the they have been exhausted by the bickering between progressives and the moderates.
It's Not Over, But . . .
Biden will emerge from this so-called Super Tuesday with a large number of delegates---more than Sanders---but not yet enough to win the nomination. The good news for Biden is that the next states' primaries, including Mississippi, Georgia, Florida, and Louisiana, are more conservative than many that happened yesterday. The somewhat bad news for Biden is that the high-population states of New York and Illinois are likely to go for Sanders. Our forecast is that this horserace is not over. However, I believe that ultimately Biden will be the Democratic nominee and that he will choose a woman as his running mate.
What this Election Means for the Rest of the World
Trump has been an unqualified catastrophe for the US State Department and its relationships with allies. He has systematically blown up relationships with our major allies and pulled out of almost every accord and treaty to benefit the US and the planet. The election of Joe Biden would mean a return to normalcy---the valuing of friends and the appropriate identification of enemies like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong un. For world leaders, it will mean the absence of terror that our president would inadvertently start World War III and a return to being able to believe what our president says. And for many of us who long for trust and integrity in our Executive Branch, it cannot come soon enough.
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