The Herman Trend Alert|
July 18, 2000
Technological Development Less Exciting
164 Days until January 1, 2001
Over the past decade or so, we've experienced a virtual explosion of technology, much of it internet-based. One new idea followed another in rapid fashion to the point that anything that even hinted of a new technology gained instant adoption and popularity. The luster is wearing off. The excitement isn't there anymore, the way it used to be. Selling new technology, selling new dot-coms, selling new ideas is more difficult. We're approaching an era where new developments will be almost ho-hum.
A great deal of the most popular technologies-computers, e-mail, voicemail, pagers, fax machines, cell phones, personal digital assistants, and the internet-were introduced to use in the business environment. Now, new technologies are so commonplace, that innovations don't grab our attention and inspire us to rush to the electronics store, web sites, or office supply house. Competitors in promoting technology are challenged to differentiate themselves--from each other and from what's already in use-in a very crowded and noisy environment.
During the past few years, most of us have become much more comfortable with the business communication technologies. We've had to overcome our reluctance-- our resistance to learn and adapt as a matter of survival in a fast-moving world. We're OK now. Things work, at least most of the time. We harbor fears of computers crashing, which we still don't understand, and we're concerned about keeping current. The keeping-up part, though, is more toward efficiency than an eagerness to be the first on our block with the new whatever.
We understand how to use technology to our advantage. And those of us with children under 20 have often been forced to learn under hard taskmasters. Our kids, so conversant with all these technologies, sometimes have little patience with those of us who are relatively technology-challenged. Children, especially teen-agers, have always believed they possessed greater knowledge than the adults they were burdened with. The scary part is that now it's true.
Those interested in more information might want to read a study conducted by Drs. Larry Rosen and Michelle Weil, authors of "Technostress," at www.technostress.com/busstudy2000.htm
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